A probabilistic model of the process by which a tactical aviation group of army aviation overcomes a potentially hazardous area using an air-launched unmanned aerial vehicle
Yuriy L. Koziratskiy1, Roman G. Khilchenko1, Andrei S. Zaitsev2
1Military Educational and Scientific Center of the Air Force "Air Force Academy named after Professor N. E. Zhukovsky and Y. A. Gagarin".
2Syzran Higher Military Aviation School of Pilots.
DOI 10.24412/2410-9916-2026-4-067-087
Full text
XML JATSAbstract
Purpose. The experience of armed conflicts in recent years has shown that, in conditions of rapidly changing combat situation along the line of contact, tactical aviation groups of army aviation often have to carry out tasks involving prompt response to emerging threats from the enemy, operating in potentially dangerous areas where the enemy may set up anti-helicopter ambushes. The problem of information support in overcoming these challenges is proposed to solve by using an air-launched unmanned aerial vehicle. However, the study of the proposed method of information provision assumes the existence of a model that reproduces the complex, multifactorial, and highly dynamic process of helicopters overcoming a potentially hazardous area and takes into account the influence of a number of important emerging situations (unsuccessful air start, missed targets by reconnaissance means of an unmanned aerial vehicle, etc.) on the outcome of the flight stage under consideration. Such a model should form the basis of a methodological framework for assessing the effectiveness of a helicopter group overcoming a potentially hazardous area using an air-start reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle and equipped with various weapons. The purpose of the article is to develop a probabilistic model of the process by which a tactical aviation group of army aviation overcomes a potentially hazardous area using an air-launched unmanned aerial vehicle, which will make it possible to assess the effectiveness of implementing the proposed method from a probabilistic perspective, taking into account the significant situations that may arise. Results. A comprehensive four-level probabilistic model has been proposed (descriptive – dynamic model based on state graphs > analytical > computer-based), which describes the process of overcoming a potentially hazardous area by a tactical air group of army aviation, taking into account significant emerging situations (failure of unmanned aerial vehicle equipment, missed threat detected by unmanned aerial vehicle reconnaissance, unconfirmed threat detected by unmanned aerial vehicle reconnaissance, confirmed threat not destroyed by air-based weapons). Novelty. The transition from the state graph to a closed analytical form was carried out through the sequential application of the apparatus of transfer functions (Laplace transform), followed by factorization and convolution of the elements. By means of the algebraicization of the semi-Markov process, which makes it possible to obtain the final probability distribution of overcoming a potentially hazardous area in an explicit form (via the inverse Laplace transform), the transition from qualitative assessments to quantitative distribution functions was ensured. An element of novelty is also overcoming the regulatory limitations on the use of the analytical model when the "convolution" of transfer functions becomes mathematically incorrect or excessively cumbersome (in particular, in the presence of feedback loops or variability in failure scenarios). In this regard, an alternative computational loop based on the MATLAB Simulink programming environment has been proposed and rigorously substantiated; it does not duplicate the analytical approach but replaces the "convolution" stage with direct numerical integration of stochastic differential equations in the SCOPE block. This makes it possible to obtain identical probabilistic-temporal dependencies without losing accuracy, which has not previously been used in engineering practice for modeling combat operations. Practical relevance. The developed model can be used in developing methods for engaging the enemy with fire by tactical aviation groups of army aviation when overcoming potentially hazardous areas; additionally, when combined with other models and methodologies, it will make it possible to formulate a list of operational and tactical requirements for the armament system of army aviation helicopters, specifically regarding the implementation of rational methods for engaging enemy targets that pose a threat to tactical aviation groups.
Key words
army aviation, helicopter, tactical aviation group, air-launch unmanned aerial vehicle, potentially hazardous area, probabilistic model.
Reference for citation
Koziratskiy Yu. L., Khilchenko R. G., Zaitsev A. S. A probabilistic model of the process by which a tactical aviation group of army aviation overcomes a potentially hazardous area using an air-launched unmanned aerial vehicle. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2026, no. 4, pp. 67-87 (in Russian). DOI: 10.24412/2410-9916-2026-4-067-087
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