# 4 2022
Intelligent information systems

Multidimensional prediction of heterogeneous electromechanical systems for risk management based on fuzzy temporal ontological and cognitive models
 Abstract
 Problem definition: The energy, technical and operational characteristics of heterogeneous electromechanical systems (HEMS) change significantly during their operation. The complexity of HEMS prediction negatively affects the quality of risk management. The topological approach to the complex study of HEMS is the basis for the development of intellectual methods, models and technologies for the research of HEMS (predictive analytics, condition diagnostics, resource and risk assessment). This approach indicates the expediency of combining fuzzy ontological and cognitive models for complex analysis and multidimensional prediction of HEMS. Fuzzy ontological modeling provides an interoperable representation and complex analysis of HEMS. Fuzzy cognitive models allow prediction of HEMS. The aim of the research is to implement the proposed approach to the joint use of fuzzy temporal ontological and cognitive models for complex analysis, multidimensional prediction and risk management of HEMS. Methods used: topological approach to HEMC research; fuzzy ontological engineering; fuzzy cognitive modeling; fuzzy and soft measurements and computing. Novelty: An approach to multidimensional prediction of NEMS for risk management based on a combination of original fuzzy temporal ontological and cognitive models is proposed. Result: The complex problem of representation, multidimensional forecasting and risk management of EMS has been solved through the joint use of fuzzy temporal ontological and cognitive models. Practical significance: The practical significance of the results lies in improving the accuracy of HEMS prediction and the quality of risk management.
 Key words
 heterogeneous electromechanical systems, topological approach, fuzzy temporal ontological model, fuzzy relational temporal cognitive model
 Reference
 Borisov V. V., Kurilin S. P., Zharkov A. P., Sokolov A. M. Multidimensional prediction of heterogeneous electromechanical systems for risk management based on fuzzy temporal ontological and cognitive models. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 83102. DOI: 10.24412/241099162022483102 (in Russian).
Information security

Model for analyzing the security of an informatization object of railway transport and method for justifying a set of test cyber attacks for this
 Abstract
 Relevance. Security issues of information systems in critical infrastructure objects become important now. However, current tasks of information security audit of critical infrastructure objects are mainly limited to checking them for compliance with requirements of standards and documents. With this approach to the audit, security of these objects from real attacks by hackers remains unclear. Therefore, objects are subjected to a testing procedure, namely, penetration testing, in order to objectively verify their security. An analysis of publications in this area shows that there is not mathematical approaches to selection of test cyber attacks for penetration testing set. The goals of the paper is to form the model for analyzing the security of an informatization object of railway transport and method for justifying a set of test cyber attacks for this, that ensure the rational completeness of the security audit of a critical information infrastructure object. Research methods. Methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics, methods of graph theory and set theory are used in the paper to achieve the research goals. Results. Model for analyzing the security of an informatization object of railway transport and method for justifying a set of test cyber attacks for this is presented in the paper. The method is based on the model. This method formalizes the selection process in the form of a twostage procedure. At the first stage, based on the topological model of the object testing, a set of testing paths is formed, and these paths are ordered by the degree of weight increase. The path weight is the efficiency/cost indicator that takes in account the test resource for realized of a test cyber attack, the vulnerability of an object element, and the level of damage caused to the element by this test cyber attack. At the second stage of the method, from an ordered set of test paths are selected of such, which would ensure the maximization of the whole absolute cost of the detected damage, within the limits on the resource making of test cyber attacks. It is using of this method in audit practice will allow us to justify the most effective test cyber attacks according to the "efficiency/cost" criterion, as well as to form test sets that will ensure the rational completeness of the audit of the critical infrastructure object.
 Key words
 critical information infrastructure, penetration testing, information security audit, information technology impact
 Reference
 Smirnov G. E. Model for analyzing the security of an informatization object of railway transport and method for justifying a set of test cyber attacks for this. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 137189. DOI: 10.24412/2410991620224137189 (in Russian).
Communication systems and telecommunication network

Functional transformation of the selfsimilar network teletraffic based on the multidimensional measure of similarity between probability parameters of input and output packet flows
 Abstract
 Statement of the problem. The problem of assessing the performance of modern telecommunication networks is the lack of analytical models that accurately describe the features of selfsimilar traffic. From an analytical point of view, communication networks that use the exponential distribution of time intervals between packets of the input packet stream turned out to be the most developed from an analytical point of view. Purpose. Development of a method of functional transformations, which allows minimizing the measure of proximity of the probability distributions of the input and output packet streams based on the use of set theory and multidimensional optimization methods; definition of a generalized analytical model of functional transformations that does not depend on the probabilistic laws of distributions of the input and output stream of packets. Methods. Probability theory, set theory, methods of multidimensional optimization, differential and integral calculus, methods of system analysis, methods of mathematical modeling. Novelty. For the first time, an analytical method of functional transformations of the input selfsimilar packet flow is presented in a general form, which makes it possible to determine the parameters of the output law for the distribution of packets of switching nodes by using the minimum value of a priori known premetric. In contrast to the results obtained earlier, for the case of transforming a selfsimilar input stream of packets into a stream with an exponential distribution law, if their mathematical expectations are equal, using the KullbackLeibler divergence as a measure of proximity, a mathematical justification is presented that allows one to obtain an analytical expression for the intensity of the output packet stream. Result. A method of functional transformations of a selfsimilar packet stream into an output packet stream that does not have selfsimilar properties has been developed; a rigorous mathematical substantiation of the possibility of functional transformations of a selfsimilar input stream of packets is obtained, which makes it possible to determine the intensity of the output stream, which has an exponential lossless distribution law. Practical significance. The developed method and generalized analytical model can improve the quality of service in telecommunication networks.
 Key words
 selfsimilar packet flow, performance estimation, Hurst exponent, functional transformations, premetric, KullbackLeibler divergence, scientific and methodological apparatus, analytical model, telecommunication networks
 Reference
 Linets G. I., Voronkin R. A., Govorova S. V. Functional transformation of the selfsimilar network teletraffic based on the multidimensional measure of similarity between probability parameters of input and output packet flows. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 3863. DOI: 10.24412/24109916202243863 (in Russian).

Improving the Quality of Analysis and Evaluation of the Communication Performance of the Command and Control Data Link of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on the Results of Flight Tests
 Abstract
 Purpose. The irreducible interest in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the part of various government agencies, the expansion of the scope and high efficiency of the use of complexes with UAVs determine the constant improvement of requirements for them and an increase in work on the creation of promising complexes with UAVs. The existing methodological testing apparatus and informationanalytical software for flight testing of UAV command and control data links (C2) do not provide an objective assessment of compliance with the specified requirements while reducing the testing time and increasing the number of development work performed. The purpose of the present paper is to improve the quality of the analysis and evaluation of the UAV C2 link communication performance based on the results of flight tests through newly developed information models for the flight data processing, analysis and evaluation of the UAV C2 link communication performance, which ensure the introduction of OLAP (Online Analytical Processing) technologies into the analysis system of flight test results. It is proposed to take into account in the models the features of modern and future UAV C2 link, to increase the efficiency and information content of the analysis of the results of flight experiments due to the developed model for storing the processed flight data, mathematical and algorithmic apparatus for operational analysis and forms for presenting the results. Methods. When solving the problems of evaluation of the performance of the UAV C2l link, the method of expert evaluation performed by external UAV pilots is used. The tasks of increasing the efficiency and informativeness of the analysis of the results of flight experiments are solved by methods based on the use of individual elements of the theory of experiment planning, mathematical statistics, system analysis and database theory. Novelty. Novelty elements are: 1) New algorithms for postflight processing and analysis of flight information, which take into account the indicator of communication continuity, and also provides for the rapid selection of criteria for assessing communication performance without reprocessing the primary flight information; 2) The use of expert assessments in the process of evaluating the communication performance of the UAV C2 link to clarify the criteria for assessing the availability and continuity of communication; 3) Inclusion in the process of analysis of descriptive and nonparametric statistics to identify influencing factors; 4) Data model that implements the subject orientation of flight data, designed to simplify the creation of analytical queries. Result. The use of the proposed information models improves the technical characteristics of the technological processes for processing and analyzing the results of a flight experiment and reduces the amount of labor costs by 4.8 times compared with the use of the existing software for the technological line for processing test information. Practical relevance. The presented solution is proposed to be implemented in the form of special software. The inclusion of the implemented software based on the proposed solutions in the line of technological processing and analysis of test results will increase the efficiency and reliability of the evaluation of the UAV C2 link communication performance in the context of reduced testing times and an increase in the number of development work performed.
 Key words
 communication performance, conformity assessment, technological line for processing and analyzing the results of flight tests, UAV command and control data link
 Reference
 Rastegaev I. G. Improving the Quality of Analysis and Evaluation of the Communication Performance of the Command and Control Data Link of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on the Results of Flight Tests. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 103136. DOI: 10.24412/2410991620224103136 (in Russian).

Descriptive Model of Starlink Satellite Communication System
 Abstract
 Relevance. Providing Internet access services at high speed and with acceptable latency throughout the Earth requires the creation of loworbit multisatellite communication systems (SatComm). Currently, several projects of such SatComm, for example, the Russian projects "Skif", "Marathon" and "Megafon1440" are being developed in Russia. To substantiate technical solutions for these SatComm, the Starlink system can be used, which can be considered as a prototype of this Russian SatComms. The aim of the paper is to form a descriptive model of Starlink satellite system as a prototype of loworbit multisatellite communication systems. Only open sources were used to make a descriptive model of the Starlink system. Results and their novelty. The element of practical novelty of the paper is the revealed general technological features of a loworbit multisatellite SatComm on the example of the Starlink system. Formation of orbital grouping satellites, organization channels in "up" and "down" lines, using of signalcode structures in channels, protocols are described in the paper. In addition, the prospects for the development of the Starlink system are presented in the paper. Practical significance. Technical specialists to justify new technological solutions for Russian projects "Skif", "Marathon" and "Megafon1440" will use this descriptive model, which is presented in the paper. In addition, the model will be useful to scientists who conduct research in the field of satellite communications.
 Key words
 model, descriptive model, satellite communication system, multisatellite loworbit satellite communication system, SatComm, Starlink, SpaceX
 Reference
 Pehterev S. V., Makarenko S. I., Kovalsky A. A. Descriptive Model of Starlink Satellite Communication System. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 190255. DOI: 10.24412/2410991620224190255 (in Russian).

Increasing the energy secrecy of narrowband signals of satellite communication systems during transionospheric propagation of radio waves through an inhomogeneous ionosphere due to a decrease in carrier frequencies and spacediversified reception. Part 1. Statement of the problem of increasing energy secrecy and its solution
 Abstract
 The relevance is due to the fact that the solution of the problem of designing advanced satellite communication systems (SCS) should be based on an integrated approach, which involves taking into account all the parameters and restrictions that provide both the requirements for the efficiency of its operation, including the requirements for both noise immunity and its secrecy from means of radio and electronic intelligence (REI). A known method of increasing the energy secrecy of the SCS with a close placement of the radio detection receiver by lowering the carrier frequency and the use of spacediversified signal reception. As a quantitative criterion of the achieved level of energy secrecy of the SCS, such a generally recognized indicator as the coefficient of energy secrecy (ECS) of the SCS is used. However, the wellknown method for determining the ECS is graphicanalytical. Therefore, it does not allow automating the process of determining this indicator using modern computer technology, which makes it difficult to solve the problem of designing promising SCS. In the first part of the article, the numerical methods of bisection, chords, Newton and the Newtonchord method, which are traditionally used to refine the root of a nonlinear equation with one unknown, were considered and adapted to determine the values of the energy signaltonoise ratio (SNR) at the input of a satellite earth station receiver communication and at the input of the radio detection receiver of the RRTR means. Thus, the necessary prerequisites have been implemented for the implementation of the methodology for the automated assessment of CES SCS, which allows, even at the stage of precontract work, to determine the potential energy secrecy of the designed CCC, taking into account the capabilities of the party implementing the RRTR. The aim of the work is to analyze the possibility of increasing the energy secrecy of narrowband signals of satellite communication systems with low carrier frequencies based on the development of a methodology that allows to reduce time costs and improve the accuracy of estimating the ECS of the SCS, by using numerical methods instead of graphical methods to refine the roots of nonlinear detection and noise immunity equations and their implementation in MATLAB. Results and their novelty. The developed methodology for evaluating the ECS of satellite communication systems differs from known in that it allows you to reduce the time for assessing this coefficient from hours to units of seconds and at the same time reduce the error of its assessment by at least three orders of magnitude. In addition, for the first time, original analytical expressions were obtained for calculating the first and second derivatives of the Marcum Qfunction with respect to the signaltonoise energy ratio parameter, which are necessary for the software implementation of the numerical Newton and Newtonchord methods for refining the roots of the nonlinear detection equation. The practical significance is that the developed methodology for evaluating the ECS of satellite communication systems will be useful to technical specialists to substantiate the source data necessary for calculations on clarifying the parameters of promising satellite communication systems, taking into account the simultaneous provision of requirements, both for the required noise resistance and in secretions connections. In addition, this technique may be of interest to scientists and applicants leading scientific research in the field of satellite communication.
 Key words
 lowfrequency satellite communication system, Rician fading, transionospheric propagation of radio waves, numerical method, energy secrecy coefficient, satellite communication system, Marcum Qfunction
 Reference
 Lyakhov A. V. Increasing the energy secrecy of narrowband signals of satellite communication systems during transionospheric propagation of radio waves through an inhomogeneous ionosphere due to a decrease in carrier frequencies and spacediversified reception. Part 1. Statement of the problem of increasing energy secrecy and its solution. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 256312. DOI: 10.24412/2410991620224256312 (in Russian).

Increasing the energy secrecy of narrowband signals of satellite communication systems during transionospheric propagation of radio waves through an inhomogeneous ionosphere due to a decrease in carrier frequencies and spacediversified reception. Part 2. Computational experiment to estimate the boundaries of increasing energy secrecy and analysis of its results
 Abstract
 The relevance is due to the fact that the solution of the problem of designing advanced satellite communication systems (SCS) should be based on an integrated approach, which involves taking into account all the parameters and restrictions that provide both the requirements for the efficiency of its operation, including the requirements for both noise immunity and its secrecy from means of radio and electronic intelligence (REI). However, at the same time, the wellknown method for determining the coefficient of energy secrecy (ECS) of the SCS is graphicanalytical. Therefore, it does not allow automating the process of determining the ECS using modern computer technology, which makes it difficult to solve the problem of designing promising SCS. Therefore, it does not allow automating the process of determining this indicator using modern computer technology, which makes it difficult to solve the problem of designing promising SCS. In the first part of the article, the numerical methods of bisection, chords, Newton and the Newtonchord method, which are traditionally used to refine the root of a nonlinear equation with one unknown, were considered and adapted to determine the values of the energy signaltonoise ratio (SNR) at the input of a satellite earth station receiver communication and at the input of the radio detection receiver of the REI means. Thus, the necessary prerequisites have been implemented for the implementation of the methodology for the automated assessment of ECS SCS, which allows, even at the stage of precontract work, to determine the potential energy secrecy of the designed SCS, taking into account the capabilities of the party implementing the REI. The aim of the work is to analyse the results of a computational experiment to assess the boundaries of increasing the energy secrecy of narrowband signals of satellite communication systems with reduced carrier frequencies. Results and their novelty. For the first time, the results of a computational experiment on estimating the boundaries of increasing the energy secrecy of narrowband signals of satellite communication systems with reduced carrier frequencies are obtained and analysed with a change in the number and spatial separation of elements of the receiving antenna system, parameters of the inhomogeneous ionosphere and the angle of transionospheric propagation of radio waves. The practical significance lies in the fact that the results of the computational experiment carried out will be useful for technical specialists to substantiate the initial data necessary for carrying out calculations to refine the parameters of promising SCS, taking into account the simultaneous provision by them of the requirements, both for the required noise immunity and communication secrecy. In addition, these results may be of interest to scientists and applicants conducting scientific research in the field of satellite communications.
 Key words
 lowfrequency satellite communication system, Rician fading, transionospheric propagation of radio waves, numerical method, energy stealth coefficient, technique for automated estimation of the energy stealth coefficient, satellite communication system
 Reference
 Lyakhov A. V. Increasing the energy secrecy of narrowband signals of satellite communication systems during transionospheric propagation of radio waves through an inhomogeneous ionosphere due to a decrease in carrier frequencies and spacediversified reception. Part 2. Computational experiment to estimate the boundaries of increasing energy secrecy and analysis of its results. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 313367. DOI: 10.24412/2410991620224313367 (in Russian).
Systems for ensuring of safety and security

Analysis of the characteristics of threeconductor modal filter under extreme conditions
 Abstract
 Problem statement: the problem of ensuring electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) of modern radioelectronic equipment (REE) is becoming more and more relevant every year. The reason for this is the growing functional complexity of REE and the tendency to their miniaturization, including by increasing the density of printed circuit board (PCB) routing. Electromagnetic interference (EMI) of various natures can lead to destabilization and destruction of critical REE elements. Critical are understood as such REE, the failure of which entails various negative consequences. Ultrashort pulses (USP) are one of the types of EMI of artificial nature and are characterized by high voltage, short duration and wide spectrum. The last decade is characterized by active research of protective structures with modal phenomena for the protection of critical REE from USP, which differ in a number of advantages compared to traditional protective devices. The principle of operation of such structures is to decompose the USP into a sequence of pulses of smaller amplitude due to the difference in mode delays in the transmission line. They are called modal filters (MF) and are implemented in strip and cable versions. One of the most important stages when designing an MF is optimization. Opportunities for optimization, in relation to the MF, are currently not studied enough. In addition, the issue of the MF operating in extreme conditions remains without due attention. In particular, it is expedient to evaluate the protective characteristics of the MF (USP attenuation, the difference in perunitlength mode delays, etc.) when exposed to temperature and moisture. Finally, it seems important to determine the optimal values of the geometric parameters of the MF under extreme conditions and assess the possibility of maintaining the required protective characteristics. The purpose of this work is to study the protective characteristics of an MF based on a 3conductor microstrip line (MSL) when exposed to temperature and moisture in single and multicriteria optimization. Methods used: in calculations, we used a quasistatic simulating system based on the method of moments, and in optimization we used a simple genetic algorithm (GA) and a modified algorithm of evolutionary strategies (ES). We performed optimization according to the amplitude the matching criteria. We simulated the temperature exposure taking into account the wellknown model of the P(T) type, taking into account the thermal change in the geometric and electrical MSL parameters. Novelty: for the first time, single and multicriteria optimization of the MF based on a 3conductor MSL was performed using GA and a modified ES algorithm when exposed to temperature and moisture. We managed to achieve high convergence of results during optimization: the deviation of the maximum voltage at the MF output does not exceed 1% when using the temperature model and 6% when exposed to moisture. As a result of multicriteria optimization, we obtained equal amplitudes of decomposition pulses at the MF output when matching the MF with the path. We have found that the lowest maximum voltage at the MF output is achievable at lower ambient temperatures. The resulting value of the maximum voltage at the MF output increases when MF is simulated with condensate on its surface. Results. As a result of multicriteria optimization, we managed to obtain equal amplitudes of decomposition pulses at the output of the MF when its matching with the path. Thus, the article demonstrates the possibility of providing high protective characteristics of an MF based on a 3conductor MSL under extreme conditions. Practical relevance. The identified features of the behavior of the protective characteristics of the MF when exposed to temperature and moisture, as well as their high level when functioning in such environments, open up the possibility of detailing and evaluating the parametric and electrophysical parameters of the PCB, including through optimization, taking into account environmental exposures at the PCB design stage. Finally, the possibility of practical application of the investigated MF for the protection of REE from USP (due to its low mass, radiation resistance, reliability, and improved characteristics) opens up in a wide variety of areas, including under extreme conditions.
 Key words
 electromagnetic compatibility, ultrashort pulse, modal filtration, modal filter, microstrip line, optimization, genetic algorithm, evolutionary strategies, temperature exposure, moisture exposure
 Reference
 Belousov A. O., Gordeyeva V. O. Analysis of the characteristics of threeconductor modal filter under extreme conditions. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 6482. DOI: 10.24412/24109916202246482 (in Russian).
Modeling of complex organizationaltechnical systems

Composite hybrid modeling of autonomous integrated energy systems
 Abstract
 Problem definition. These systems consist of renewable energy sources, such as wind farms, photovoltaic installations, minihydroelectric power plants. One of the main problems hindering the introduction of such energy systems is the significant variability of systemic and external factors, which leads to instability of electric energy generation. Therefore, the Autonomous Integrated Energy Systems (AIES) are being created, containing, in addition to renewable energy sources, diesel generator sets and energy storage systems. For the effective operation of the AIES, it is necessary to ensure a balance between energy production, its consumption and the level of energy in storage. However, there are difficulties due to the peculiarities of such systems and external factors. Therefore, it is advisable to combine various approaches and methods for constructing composite models of AIES in order to improve the management efficiency of such systems. At the same time, it is necessary to provide for the designing of composite hybrid AIES models that take into account the specifics of the development, training and interaction of different types of component models. The aim of the work is to develop and study a composite hybrid model of the AIES, as well as the procedures for its construction and monitoring. Methods used: system analysis, methods of designing, training and using neural models, fuzzy logic models, neurofuzzy models, fuzzy neural models, mathematical statistics. Novelty: the novelty is characterized by the composite hybrid model of the AIES, which consists of component models of various types (analytical models with clear and fuzzy parameters, neural models, fuzzy logic models, neurofuzzy models, fuzzy neural models). An original procedure for designing this model and a technique for monitoring the state of AIES in the process of modeling and functioning are also proposed. Result: The composite hybrid model of the AIES and the procedure for its construction are used for intelligent modeling and control of the AIES. Practical significance: The practical significance of the results is to increase the accuracy of AIES modeling to improve the management efficiency of such systems.
 Key words
 autonomous integrated energy systems, composite hybrid modeling, intelligent models
 Reference
 Borisov V. V., Dli M. I., Sinyavsky Yu. V., Fedulov A. S. Composite hybrid modeling of autonomous integrated energy systems. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 137. DOI: 10.24412/2410991620224137 (in Russian).
Scientific contribution

Logical modeling of the dynamics of discrete circuits: to the 50th anniversary of the discovery
 Abstract
 Relevance. 2022 marks the 50th anniversary of an important event in the history of cybernetics – the discovery of an adequate mathematical apparatus for studying the dynamics of discrete systems. In this regard, it is useful to comprehend what was done then, to assess the impact of what was done on science and society. The purpose of the article is to use the results obtained in this field to form an understanding of the fundamental processes of evolutionary and revolutionary approaches to the formation of new scientific knowledge, the laws of the development of science among novice scientists. Result: To achieve the objectives of the article, the domestic literature on Cybernetics and on the history of science, the works of the author himself, the memoirs of his colleagues are used. The article describes the meaning of the author's scientific results, the possibilities of their use in engineering and other fields. The author's scientific biography in the period under review is recreated. The memoirs of his colleagues and acquaintances were used. Novelty and theoretical significance. The article recreates for the first time the history of the creative activity of domestic and foreign scientists, which led to the discovery of an adequate mathematical apparatus for studying the dynamics of discrete systems. The work will be useful for young scientists studying the methodology of scientific research, as well as specialists working on complex scientific problems as an example of their successful resolution.
 Key words
 discrete systems, system dynamics, logical modeling
 Reference
 Levin V. I. Logical modeling of the dynamics of discrete circuits: to the 50th anniversary of the discovery. Systems of Control, Communication and Security, 2022, no. 4, pp. 368384. DOI: 10.24412/2410991620224368384 (in Russian).